COMING UP NEXT, WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT ACCURACY OF POLITICAL VOTER POLLS.

PLUS, THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN VACCINATED FOR MEASLES CONTINUES TO FALL.

AND WE'LL MEET MARTY AND FIND OUT HOW HE IMPACTS CITY'S POPULATIONS.

THOSE STORIES AND MORE NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON.

GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

PRESIDENT BIDEN TODAY CALLED FO LEGISLATION THAT WOULD MAKE FOR MAJOR CHANGES TO THE U.S SUPREM COURT.

THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT HE WANT TERM-LIMITS FOR SUPREME COURT JUSTICES AND HE ALSO CALLED FOR JUSTICES TO ADHERE TO AN ENFORCEABLE CODE OF ETHICS.

>> THE PROBLEM WITH THIS EXTREME DECISION.

[ INDISCERNIBLE ] IT CAUSES PUBLIC OPINION TO QUESTION THE PROCESS.

>>> THE PRESIDENT ADDED THAT THE COURT'S GRANTING IMMUNITY TO PRESIDENTS IN CRIMES WHILE IN OFFICE WAS, QUOTE, DANGEROUS AND EXTREME AND CALLED FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO REVERSE THAT DECISION.

THE FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATIO TODAY APPROVED A BLOOD TEST FOR COLO-RECTAL CANCER SCREENING.

THE TEST IS CALLED "THE SHIELD, AND IT'S THE FIRST BLOOD TEST T BE APPROVED AS A PRIMARY SCREENING OPTION FOR COLO-RECTAL CANCER.

THE TEST IS FOR ADULTS AGE 45 AND UP WITH AN AVERAGE RISK FOR THE DISEASE, AND IT MUST BE ORDERED BY A DOCTOR.

IT WORKS BY DETECTING TUMOR DNA IN BLOOD SAMPLES.

THE COST IS EXPECTED TO VARY FO PATIENTS WITH COMMERCIAL INSURANCE PLANS BUT IT DOES MEE REQUIREMENTS FOR MEDICARE REIMBURSEMENT.

NEW RESEARCH SUGGESTS THAT LONG TERM EXPOSURE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE CAN HAVE SERIOUS LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON THE BRAIN, INCLUDING INCREASED RISKS OF DEMENTIA.

THE STUDY LOOKED AT RESIDENTS O SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE AG OF 60 AND FOUND THAT THE ODDS O A DEMENTIA DIAGNOSIS INCREASED AFTER REPEATED EXPOSURE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.

POLLUTION FROM MOTOR VEHICLES AND FACTORIES ALSO PLAYED A ROLE, BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACCORDING TO THE STUDY.

AND A NEW RESEARCH SHOWS THAT MOST RENTERS WHO WANT TO BUY A HOME DON'T THINK THEY'LL EVER B ABLE TO AFFORD ONE.

THE CNN POLL SHOWS THAT 86% OF RENTERS SAY THEY'D LIKE TO BUY A HOME, BUT CAN'T AFFORD ON RIGHT NOW, AND 54% DON'T THINK THEY EVER WILL.

MOST OF THOSE WHO DON'T THINK HOME OWNERSHIP IS IN THE CARDS ARE 45 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER, WHILE YOUNGER ADULTS ARE MORE HOPEFUL THAT THE SITUATION WILL CHANGE.

POLITICAL POLLING NUMBERS ARE NOT ALWAYS ACCURATE AND CAN, AT TIMES, BE CONSIDERABLY INCORRECT.

INDEED POLITICO REPORTS THAT NATIONAL SURVEYS OF THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST WERE THE LEAST ACCURATE IN 40 YEARS, WHILE POLITICAL POLLS IN 2022 WERE HISTORICALLY ON TARGET.

JOINING US NOW TO TALK ABOUT AL THIS IS VETERAN POLLSTER MIKE O'NEIL OF O'NEIL ASSOCIATES.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> GOOD TO BE HERE.

>> HOW ACCURATE ARE POLITICAL POLLS?

>> WELL, THEY'RE PROBABLY BETTER THAN ITS WORST CRITICS, SAY, BUT NOT AS GOOD AS ITS MOST ARRESTED ENTER ADHERENCE.

IT DEPENDS ON A LOT OF THINGS.

FOR EXAMPLE, RIGHT NOW IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLITICAL SITUATION RIGHT NOW, IT IS VERY TOMORROW VOLATILE.

AND NUMBERS ARE LIABLE TO BE ALL OVER THE MAP BECAUSE THE UNDERLYING ATTITUDES ARE ALL OVER THE MAP.

THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS PROBABLY THE MOST STABLE IN AMERICAN HISTORY UNTIL ABOUT TWO OR THREE WEEKS AGO AT WHICH POINT IN TIME THAT WAS NO LONGER THE CASE.

>> SO WITH THAT IN MIND, AND LET'S -- YOU MENTIONED HOW VOLATILE THINGS ARE RIGHT NOW.

THEY'VE BEEN VOLATILE AT TIMES IN THE PAST.

POLITICAL POLLING NOW COMPARED TO IN THE PAST, WHAT DO YOU SEE?

>> ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS IS THERE'S A LONG-TERM DETERIORATION IN PEOPLE'S WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE IN POLLS.

IN THE 70s, MY DISSERTATION RESEARCH, I DID A POLL AND GOT AN 88% RESPONSE RATE.

88% OF THE PEOPLE CONSENTED TO THE INTERVIEW.

WE'VE BEEN ON A LONG HISTORICAL MULTI-DECADE DOWNTURN IN THAT -- THOSE KINDS OF NUMBERS WITH 1 OR 2% A YEAR.

AND FOR A FEW YEARS YOU KIND OF GOT BY WITH THAT.

BUT WHAT THAT MEANS IS TODAY'S POLLS ARE NOT TO THE SAME EXTENT BUILT ON THE FOUNDATION OF MATHEMATICS.

THEY'RE BUILT ON THE FOUNDATION OF, OKAY, WELL, THE RESPONSE RATE'S REAL LOW, BUT WE CAN KIND OF JERRY RIG THESE NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT.

WE'RE A LITTLE LOW IN THAT DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP SO WE CAN WAIT FOR IT.

BUT WAITING NEVER COMPLETELY FIX IT IS.

SO WHAT I WOULD LOOK FOR MOST THINGS IS LOOK FOR THE REALLY BIG DIFFERENCES.

I'LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE.

THIS IS SOMETHING I THINK YOU CAN FUNDAMENTALLY BELIEVE.

IN THE CURRENT ELECTION, I SAW A CNN REPORT JUST THE OTHER DAY, JOE BIDEN OF THE JOE BIDEN VOTERS, 37% WERE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THEIR CHOICE.

THEY ASKED THAT QUESTION ABOUT KAMALA HARRIS, THAT NUMBER WAS 81%.

THAT'S A KNOCK YOUR SOCKS OFF KIND OF DIFFERENCE, AND IT TELLS YOU THE ENTHUSIASM FOR HARRIS IS WEIGH UP.

I WOULDN'T TAKE THE 81 VERSUS 83 OR 79 TO THINK THAT THAT'S A WHOPPING DIFFERENCE.

BUT WHEN YOU HEAR THAT THOSE SIX SWING STATES, WHICH HAVE BEEN STABLE OVER THE LAST YEAR, AND I BELIEVE THEY ARE THE SWING STATES, BUT WHEN YOU HEAR THAT SOMEBODY'S UP NOW BY 1 OR 2% INCIDENT WOULD HOLD THAT AT ARM'S LENGTH.

I WANT TO GO BACK TO PEOPLE DON'T LIKE PARTICIPATING IN POLLS.

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THAT?

>> YOU KNOW, WE'VE ALL BEEN HARASSED TODAY WITH SALES CALLS FOR A WHILE, AND JUST THE VOLUME OF INTERRUPTIONS.

I'VE BEEN GETTING TEXTS MOSTLY ASKING FOR MONEY FROM EVERY SIDE OF EVERY POLITICAL ISSUE.

THEY COME IN, YOU KNOW, EVERY HOUR OR TWO.

YOU'RE JUST SICK TO DEATH OF THE NUMBER OF INTERRUPTIONS, AND PEOPLE TO A GREAT BE EXTENT GOT FED UP.

IN THE OLD DAYS, WE'D CALL SOMEBODY AND SAY WE'RE DOING A POLL, THAT HAD A COMMON KNOWLEDGE TO IT, AND IT WAS IN COMPARATIVE TERMS EASY.

YOU STILL THIS TO WORK AT IT, CALL PEOPLE BACK, WHATEVER.

BUT NOW PEOPLE ARE JUST FED UP TO HEAR POLLS, SURVEYS, SALES CALLS, ALL OF THE THINGS OF LIFE.

>> HOW ARE POLLS THEN -- GIVE US A BASIC OVERVIEW OF HOW ARE POLLS CONDUCTED.

HOW DO YOU KNOW WHO TO CALL?

WE SEE ONLINE POLLS, WHICH I DON'T KNOW IF ANYONE TAKES ALL THAT SERIOUSLY.

BUT AS FAR AS POLL SOMETHING CONCERNED, HOW'S IT DONE?

>> WELL, YOU START OUT WITH TAKING A RANDOM SAMPLE.

NOW, IN THE SWEET AREA OF POLLING, WHICH IS PROBABLY 1975 TO WARNED THE MIL YOU KNEW THERE WERE -- MILLENNIUM, YOU KNEW THERE WERE GEOGRAPHICAL BASES AND COULD YOU PUT RANDOM DIGITS AFTER THAT, SO YOU PICKED UP UNLISTED NUMBERS AND YOU COULD CALL A GEOGRAPHICAL AREA, AND YOU GOT A RANDOM SAMPLE TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU KEPT IT.

NOW, THAT'S STILL THE GOLD STANDARD EVEN THOUGH YOU HAVE -- IT'S BETTER -- WHAT YOU DON'T WANT, AND THE REASON WHY YOU DISAPPROPRIATELY DO THIS, IS THEY TEND TO BE VOLUNTEER SAMPLES.

PEOPLE WHO SAY I WANT TO GET ON THE LIST, MAYBE YOU'LL GIVE ME SOME MONEY.

THAT IS THE WORST OF ALL POSSIBLE THINGS.

YOU STILL WANT TO BE ATTEMPT TO GET A RANDOM SAMPLE, BUT RESPONSE RATES HAVE GOTTEN SO LOW THAT NOBODY GETS A RANDOM SAMPLE NOW AND MAINTAIN IT IS.

BUT IT'S STILL BETTER -- THE WORST OF ALL POSSIBLE WORLDS IS VOLUNTEERS.

>> WE HAD THE WORST OF ALL POSSIBLE POLLING SEASONS IN 2020, APPARENTLY.

NO ONE SEEMED TO GET IT RIGHT, AND IT WAS HISTORICALLY BAD.

WHAT HAPPENED?

>> I THINK THE WORST PROBLEM WAS IN 2016.

>> EVEN WORSE?

>> YEAH.

AND I'LL TELL YOU WHY.

>> LET ME GIVE YOU A HISTORICAL EXAMPLE, THE POLLS MISSED BY 9% IN 1980.

THEY SAID RONALD REAGAN WOULD WIN BY 1%.

HE WON BY 9.

QUANTITATIVELY THAT WAS PROBABLY THE WORST RESULT IN AMERICAN HISTORY.

NOW, THERE'S NOTHING MAGIC ABOUT YOU'RE KNOWING SOMETHING -- SOMEBODY IS ON ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER.

50% HAS A LOT OF CONSEQUENCE TO WHO WINS.

BUT UP BY 8%, THERE'S NOTHING -- IF YOU GUESS 49 AND THE ANSWER IS 51, YOU'RE ONLY OFF BY 2% BUT EVERYBODY SAYS YOU GOT IT WRONG.

BUT IF YOU'RE A POLLING COMPANY, AND I'M A CANDIDATE, AND YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE UP BY 1, AND I WIN BY 8 OR I'M UP BY 8 AND LOSE BY 3, YOU AS A POLLING COMPANY -- YOU'RE NOT GETTING MY BUSINESS ANYMORE AND YOU MIGHT NOT GET OTHER PEOPLE'S BUSINESS.

THIS IS A RESULTS-BASED POLL.

THE CANDIDATES ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTED THAN THEY SHOULD BE IN WHAT ISSUES CAN I MOVE.

WHERE IS MY SUPPORT.

WHERE ARE MY POSITIONS ON ISSUES.

HOW CAN I ADJUST MY LANGUAGE?

WHAT TACTICAL CHANGES CAN VOICE MY STRENGTHS, MY WEAKNESSES.

WHERE ARE VOTERS PERSUADABLE?

I WORK WITH CANDIDATES.

WHO'S AHEAD RIGHT NOW PROBABLY THE LEAST IMPORTANT THING IN THE WORLD BECAUSE IF YOU'RE AHEAD, YOU'RE GONNA FEEL GOOD.

BUT WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT THAT?

BIAS IN POLLING, DOES IT EXIST, AND IF SO, HOW LONG CAN IT LAST, AGAIN WITH, A POLLING COMPANY ALLOWED TO DO THIS -- >> WE CAN'T TRUST THEM.

>> NO.

>> A REPUTABLE COMPANY THAT WANTS TO STAY IN BUSINESS IS GOING TO -- EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE RIGHT.

ANYBODY IN THE BUSINESS, EVEN IF THEY HAVE A DNR LIENING, THEY WOULD RATHER BE RIGHT THAN PICK ONE SIDE.

THE ONLY ENTITIES THAT ARE NOT LIKE THAT, ARE THE ONES THAT ARE NOT LEGAL POLLING COMPANIES BUT ENTITIES THAT WERE SET UP TO PRODUCE NUMBERS FOR THAT SINGLE PURPOSE BUT THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE AROUND IN TWO YEARS.

>> WELL, I KNOW YOU'LL BE AROUND IN A COUPLE OF YEARS, MICHAEL.

YOU'VE BEEN AROUND FOR A LONG TIME.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> WE'RE FIGHTING TO BE THE NUMBER ONE IN THE WORLD.

>> YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

THE NUMBER OF SCHOOLS WITH /KINDERGARTNERS VACCINATED AGAINST MEASLES HAS DROPPED IN HALF OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS.

SO MUCH SO THAT ONLY 1 IN 3 SCHOOLS IN THE STATE NOW HAS HERD IMMUNITY OR ENOUGH VACCINATED CHILDREN TO STOP THE DISEASE FROM SPREADING.

CAITLIN MCGLADE IS AN INVESTIGATIVE DATA REPORTER AT THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC AND AZ CENTRAL.COM.

SHE'S BEEN LOOKING INTO THESE NUMBERS.ED >> THANKS FOR JOINING US.

WE APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> SO A DROP IN MEASLES -- DO WE KNOW WHY THIS IS HAPPENING?

>> THERE ARE THREE REASONS THAT CAN EXPLAIN IT.

ONE, THERE IS A NATIONWIDE DISTRUST OF VACCINES THAT HAVE BEEN BUBBLING UP SINCE THE PANDEMIC STARTED.

THERE ARE TWO THINGS, ONE, ARIZONA DOES HAVE AN EXEMPTION LAW SO PARENTS CAN CHOOSE NOT TO GET THEIR KIDS VACCINATED FOR PERSONAL BELIEFS.

AND THEN THE OTHER ONE IS BECAUSE THE STATE, UP UNTIL RECENTLY, MANAGED ITS FREE VACCINE PROGRAM IN A WAY A DROVE A LOT OF PROVIDERS OUT OF THE SYSTEM.

>> YEAH, I WANT TO GET TO THAT IN A SECOND, BECAUSE THAT'S KIND OF VERY INTERESTING AND KIND OF FASCINATING.

THESE NUMBERS -- I THINK ONE TIME YOU REPORTED ON 100% IN 2015 AND 46% NOW VACCINATED IN SCHOOLS.

THAT DOESN'T SOUND GOOD.

>> RIGHT.

AND THAT WAS A SCHOOL -- SO I FOUND ABOUT 70 SCHOOLS IN HIGH POVERTY AREAS THAT HAD HERD IMMUNITY AND NO LONGER DO.

AND THAT SORT OF STAT ACTUALLY TROUBLED THE COUNTY.

IT TROUBLED A LOT OF PUBLIC HEALTH ENTITIES BECAUSE USUALLY SCHOOLS IN POVERTY AREAS HAVE HIGHER VACCINATION NUMBERS BECAUSE THEY'RE SURE TO GET THEM WITH MEDI-CAL OR MEDICAID.

>> IS IT FEAR OF VACCINES?

THEY'RE OPTING OUT FOR PERSONAL PURPOSE?

ARE THEY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THAT?

WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE?

>> I CAN'T BE SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE GAPS ARE BECAUSE THE STATE WOULDN'T GIVE ME A LIST OF PROVIDERS THAT GIVE FREE VACCINES.

BUT THE WHOLE IDEA FROM MY SOURCES IN PUBLIC HEALTH IS THAT WE'RE SEEING A DECLINE AMONG KIDS ARE WHO UNINSURED OR ON MEDICAID BECAUSE IT'S HARDER TO FIND A FLYER WILL ACTUALLY HAVE VACCINES FOR THEM THAT ARE A PART OF THE INDUSTRY.

>> IS THIS SOMETHING THAT'S HAPPENING AROUND THE COUNTRY, AS WELL?

>> NO?

THAT IS AN ARIZONA-SPECIFIC PROBLEM.

>> BECAUSE OF THE LAW, OPT-OUT, AND BECAUSE AS YOU MENTIONED THE IDEA THAT THE HEALTH DEPARTMENT'S FREE VACCINE PROGRAM IS KIND OF NOT WORKING OUT ALL THAT WELL.

GIVE US THE BASICS.

WHAT'S THIS ALL ABOUT?

>> SO MARICOPA COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT NOTICED THAT THE VACCINATION RATES WERE DROPPING A LOT.

THEY NOTICED THAT THEY WERE DROPPING AMONG UNINSURED AND MEDICAID KIDS.

SO THEY LAUNCHED A THIRD PARTY STUDY ESSENTIALLY TO DETERMINE WHAT WAS HAPPENING.

AND THAT THIRD PARTY STUDY FOUND THAT THE NUMBER OF PROVIDERS PROVIDING FREE VACCINES FOR KIDS WHO NEED THEM HAS BEEN CUT IN HALF.

AND THEY FOUND THAT DOCTORS SAID THAT THE STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT'S STAFF WERE HARASSING THEM, BULLYING THEM, MAKING THEM PAY BACK THE STATE FOR VACCINES THEY DIDN'T USE, WHICH COST A LOT OF MONEY, THAT THEY HAD TO USE A TRACKING SYSTEM.

AT ONE POINT THE STATE WAS TRYING TO ASSIGN PROVIDERS A WHOLE BUNCH OF MONEY -- LIKE 40% OF THE PROVIDERS THAT WERE BEING FINED WERE ABLE TO PROVE THAT THEY DIDN'T ACTUALLY OWE ANYTHING.

SO THERE WAS A LOT OF MISTRUST THAT WAS HAPPENING.

AND PROVIDERS STARTED DROPPING OUT OF THE PROGRAM.

AND THE STATE'S DOING THIS, WHAT, TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY'RE NOT WASTING VACCINES?

WHY ARE THEY DOING THIS?

>> THERE WAS A FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY REPORT THAT ENCOURAGED STATES TO TRY TO WASTE LESS VACCINES.

SO ARIZONA'S DUCEY ADMINISTRATION DID RESPOND TO THAT, IT'S MY UNDERSTANDING, BY KIND OF REALLY CRACKING DOWN AND SAYING WE'RE GOING TO SHOW THESE YOU PROVIDERS ACCOUNTABLE IF THEY DON'T USE THEM AND WE'RE GOING TO TRACK ALL OF THIS.

A LOT OF DOCTORS THOUGHT IT WAS CUMBERSOME AND LEFT.

>> SO IF THIS PLAN RESULTS IN THAT, I WOULD THINK SOMEONE'S OUT THERE TRYING TO CHANGE ALL THAT.

IS ANYTHING HAPPENING THERE?

>> THEY ARE.

NOW THEY'RE TURNING AROUND AND TRYING TO LURE DOCTORS BACK INTO THE PROGRAM.

THE STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED THAT THEY ARE NO LONGER GOING TO BE REQUIRING DOCTORS TO LIKE PAY BACK, YOU KNOW, VACCINES THEY DON'T USE AND REALLY LOOSEN A LOT OF THE RULES THAT WERE MAKING IT PRETTY HARD FOR THE PROVIDERS.

>> SO RELATIVELY ENCOURAGING NEWS THERE WHICH SHOULD, I WOULD THINK, INCREASE THE VACCINATION RATE PERHAPS, IF IT'S AVAILABLE.

IF THAT'S PART OF THE PROBLEM, THAT SHOULD BE A BIT OF A SOLUTION.

>> RIGHT, THAT IS THE HOPE THAT I'M HEARING FROM PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS.

THEY'RE SAYING IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT, AND ALSO GAINING THEIR TRUST BACK WILL BE HARD.

BUT IT'S DEFINITELY A STEP THAT A LOT OF FOLKS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT.

>> AND THESE ARE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT?

>> PUBLIC, PRIVATE, AND CHARTER SCHOOLS.

>> OKAY.

BECAUSE I THINK FROM YOUR REPORT, FOR CHARTER SCHOOLS, NUMBERS ARE EVEN LOWER.

>> THEY ARE.

ABOUT 17% OF CHARTER SCHOOLS DID NOT GET VACCINATED LAST YEAR.

AND FOR PRIVATE SCHOOLS -- IT'S A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT.

>> AND FOR PARENTS THAT ARE SIGNING OFF OR OPTING OUT FOR VACCINATIONS, WHAT'S THE PROCESS?

DO YOU HAVE TO SIGN A FORM?

DO YOU HAVE TO ADHERE TO SOMETHING?

WHAT'S THE DEAL?

>> STATE LAW SAYS THAT PARENTS CAN EXEMPT THEIR KID FROM GETTING VACCINATED IF THEY SIGN A FORM THAT SAYS "I UNDERSTAND THAT THESE ARE ALL THE RISKS."

YOU KNOW, MY KID MIGHT GET THE MEASLES, THEY MIGHT GET SEIZURES.

THEY MIGHT DIE, THEY MIGHT HAVE BRAIN SWELLING, ALL OF THAT.

THEY HAVE TO SIGN A FORM THAT SAYS "I UNDERSTAND THAT."

AND IF THEY DON'T SIGN THAT FORM, THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO GET THEIR KIDS VACCINATED.

SCHOOLS DON'T ALWAYS BOTHER TO COLLECT -- >> I WAS GOING TO SAY, IS THAT ENFORCED AT ALL?

>> I MEAN, SOME SCHOOLS DO.

>> BUT NOT MUCH.

>> I MEAN, YEAH, I DON'T KNOW OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD.

BUT IT'S DEFINITELY GOT WORSE.

I READ ABOUT THIS IN 2013, AND THEY WEREN'T DOING IT THEN EITHER.

>> GOODNESS GRACIOUS.

IS THERE -- LET'S SAY THE PARENTS ARE JUST LIKE, I'M NOT DOING IT.

IS THERE A PENALTY INVOLVED THERE'S NO PENALTY INVOLVED?

>> NO.

>> WELL, I MEAN -- ALL RIGHT, SO THE STATE'S TRYING TO DO SOMETHING TO LURE DOCTORS BACK.

IS THERE ANYONE LOOKING AT THIS OPT-OUT THING?

MAYBE WE NEED TO TIGHT, THINGS UP HERE.

HAS ANYONE -- A LAWMAKER, LEADER, ANYONE SAYING, HEY, WAIT A MINUTE?

>> I ASKED THE HEALTH GET THIS DURING AN INTERVIEW, AND THEY SAID THAT, YOU KNOW -- THEY DO TRACK COMPLIANCE, BUT THEY SAID THAT THEY DON'T HAVE THE LIKE ANY ABILITY TO LIKE ENFORCE THE LAW.

THERE'S NO TEETH BEHIND THE LAW >> RIGHT.

>> AND I ALSO ASKED THEM WHY DO THE FORMS MATTER?

DO THEY MATTER?

I DON'T KNOW.

AND THEN THEY.

>> THEY DIDN'T REALLY ANSWER ME THEY JUST TOLD ME TO ASK THE SCHOOLS.

I NEVER GOT AN ANSWER.

>> ONE LAST QUESTION HERE.

THIS IS GREAT REPORTING, CONCERNING REPORTING.

ARE PEOPLE PAYING ATTENTION?

ARE PEOPLE CONTACTING YOU AND SAYING WHERE DID YOU GET THIS STUFF, AND DOES IT SOUND LIKE IT'S MOVING THE NEEDLE A LITTLE BIT?

>> I GET SOME EMAILS FROM PARENTS SAYING THANK YOU FOR INFORMING US.

I DID BUILD A TOOL SO THAT PARENTS CAN LOOK UP THEIR SCHOOL AND SEE WHAT THE TREND IS OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS OR SO.

I'M GETTING SOME POSITIVE REACTION FROM THAT FROM PARENTS.

>> WHERE CAN YOU FIND THE TOOL.

>> ON AZCENTRAL.COM.

>> THE LAWMAKERS, LEADERS, THEY'RE NOT SAYING, HEY, THIS IS BAD NEWS -- NOTHING?

>> I HAVEN'T HEARD MUCH.

I DO KNOW THAT THE STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT IS TRYING TO LURE DOCTORS BACK IN THE PROGRAM.

BUT I DON'T KNOW ABOUT WHAT SCHOOLS ARE HEARING BECAUSE NO SCHOOLS WOULD TALK TO ME FOR THE STORY, AND, YEAH, SO I KNOW -- NO PARENTS REALLY TALKED TO ME FOR THE STORY EITHER.

THE SOMETHING THEY ARE WORKING ON THIS AND MAYOR MARICOPA COUNTY IS ALSO VERY ALARMED BY THE DROP AND COMMISSIONED A REPORT TO STUDY IT.

>> NUMBERS ALWAYS CHECK.

THAT'S WHY YOU'RE AN INVESTIGATIVE DATA REPORTER.

GREAT REPORTING, CAITLIN.

THANK YOU FOR JOINS.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

♪ ASU RESEARCHERS ARE LOOKING INT WAYS TO MEASURE AND MITIGATE HEAT- EXPOSURE RISK.

THAT RESEARCH INCLUDES "MARTY," A STATE OF THE ART MOBILE BIO-METEROLOGICAL STATION.

HERE TO TALK ABOUT "MARTY," IS KONRAD RYKACZEWSKI, FROM ASU'S FULTON SCHOOLS OF ENGINEERING.. AND JENNIFER VANOS, FROM ASU'S SCHOOL OF SUSTAINABILITY.

GOOD HAVE YOU BOTH HERE.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR GOING WITH US.

KONRAD, LET'S START WITH YOU.

WHAT'S MARTY?

>> MARTY IS A SENSE OF SENSORS THAT WE USE TO MEASURE DIFFERENT WAYS YOUR BODY IS EXPOSED TO THE HEAT.

SO WHEN -- WHEN YOU WALK OVER A HOT PARKING LOT, IT FEELS LIKE YOU'RE GETTING KIND OF GRILLED BY THE ASPHALT, THAT'S INFRARED RADIATION.

AND THEN OF COURSE WHEN YOU GO OUT IN THE SNOW THERE'S RADIATION.

SO MARTY HAS A SET OF SENSORS THAT WE PUT UP ON A MOBILE CART SO WE'RE ABLE TO GO IN DIFFERENT SPOTS AND MEASURE HOW DIFFERENT MICROCLIMATES CHANGE THE WAY YOU'RE EXPOSED TO THE HEAT.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, JENNIFER SOUNDS LIKE SENSORS ARE KIND OF MEASURING MICROCLIMATES.

YOU COULD BE IN THE SHADE AND YOU WALK ACROSS THE STREET AND ALL OF A SUDDEN IT FEELS LIKE, YOU KNOW WHAT.

>> EXACTLY.

IT FEELS LIKE AN INFERNO, RIGHT, ESPECIALLY HERE IN THE VALLEY.

AND SO WITH THESE RADIOMETERS THAT KONRAD IS TALKING ABOUT, WE'RE ABLE TO DIFFERENTIATE WHAT PEOPLE GO THROUGH FROM A GRASSY AREA INTO A HOT ASPHALT PARKING LOT.

AND THAT'S ALSO HOW WE CAN PICK OUT THESE MICROCLIMATES IN A CITY AND START TO SEE WHAT ARE THESE EXPOSURES PEOPLE ARE EXPERIENCING, AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT THAT TO MITIGATE HEAT EXPOSURE, ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WHERE THEY SPEND TIME THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SIDEWALKS, PARKS, AND SO FORTH.

>> SOUNDS LIKE ONE OF THE SENSORS, MANY ARE CYLINDER SHAPE, AND THAT'S A BIG DEAL, ISN'T IT?

TALK TO BUS THAT.

>> SURE.

SO WE -- TALK TO US ABOUT THAT.

>> WE HAVE INSTRUMENTS THAT QUANTIFY HEAT EXPOSURES.

IT'S A VERY EXPENSIVE TOOL THAT COST MORE THAN A HOUSE.

NOW, MIDWAY WE HAVE MARTY, AND MARTY MIGHT COST SOMEWHAT LIKE A USED CAR.

AND THEN THE LESSONS LEARNED FROM ENVY AND MARTY AND WE INK SURE THAT THE TWO AGREE, WE CREATED CHEAPER SENSORS THAT ARE SAFE AND FOUND THAT THERE'S REALLY NO LIMITATION FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF BODIES AND THESE SENSORS COST LESS THAN A CELL PHONE.

THE IDEA THAT MOST EVERYBODY CAN AFFORD A MARTY, AND THAT WE HAVE THREE OF THEM, BUT WE RAN OUT OF MONEY.

WE'RE IN DEBT, BUT THE CHEAPER SILL LYNN TRICK CAN SENSORS, WE MAKE SURE THEY AGREE WITH MARTY AND ENVY, BUT THEY'RE CHEAPER NOW AND COULD BE WIDELY DISTRIBUTED INTO MULTIPLE SPOTS.

>> AND DO THE MEASUREMENTS INCLUDE HOW HEAT WOULD IMPACT THE BODY?

>> IN ENVY, YES, OR WE CAN MODEL THAT AS WELL.

IN ENVY.

THEY'RE HELPFUL IN QUANTIFYING IN A LOW COST WAY AND A HIGHLY SPATIAL WAY WHAT THE RADIOACTIVE AND CONVECTIVE LOADS ARE TO THE HUMAN BODY, WHICH ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THEN GET TO THAT QUESTION OR THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION, WHAT'S HAPPENING TO THE HUMAN BODY IN THE HEAT.

>> DOES WIND PLAY A FACTOR?

IS WIND -- YOU MENTIONED CONVECTION, I WOULD IMAGINE.

>> WIND PLAY AS VERY IMPORTANT FACTOR BOTH IN THE VALLEY ON A DAY LIKE TODAY, THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS SO HIGH, CONVECTIVE HEAT GAIN IS IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF HEATING THE BODY, SO WE DON'T LIKE THAT CONVECTIVE HEAT GAIN.

BUT THE WIND FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS EVAPORATIVE HEAT LOSS FROM THE BODY, WHICH ON A DAY LIKE TODAY, IS THE MAIN, IF NOT THE ONLY WAY THAT OUR BODY CAN USE ITSELF TO COOL DOWN.

SO WE NEED THE EVAPORATION OF OUR BODIES.

>> SO WITH ENVY, WE'RE ABLE TO LEARN THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE PARAMETERS THAT DESCRIBE THE WIND FLOW THAT ARE IMPORTANT.

SO TYPICALLY YOU CAN THINK OF JUST AVERAGE WIND SPEED.

BUT WHEN YOU GO OUTSIDE, YOU FEEL, FIRST, YOU KNOW GUSTS, RIGHT, AND IT TURNS OUT THAT THE AMOUNT OF TURBULENCE IN THE AIR CAN HAVE REALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOW MUCH OF THAT HEAT YOU GAIN FROM THE HOT WIND AND HOW MUCH IT EVAPORATES.

SO WE'RE ABLE TO DEVELOP BETTER MODELS ACCOUNTING FOR THAT.

>> FANTASTIC.

WE GOTTA GET YOU GUYS BACK ON.

THIS IS FASCINATING STUFF, AND I WANT TO GET MORE ON THE RESEARCH AND WHAT IT'S SHOWN HERE.

THANK YOU FOR SHARING WHAT YOU'VE DONE SO FAR.

CONGRATULATIONS ON YOUR SUCCESS, AND WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON YOU.

>> THANKS SO MUCH.

>> THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.