>> Ted: COMING UP NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON," AN UPDATE ON SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES AND THE IMPACT OF THOSE ISSUES ON INFLATION.

AND LATER IN THE HOUR ON CRONKITE NEWS, A LOOK AT THE IMPACT OF INDIGENOUS-OWNED BUSINESSES IN ARIZONA.

GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL MAKE HIS FIRST PRESIDENTIAL VISIT TO ARIZONA NEXT WEEK.

HE'S SCHEDULED TO APPEAR TUESDAY AT A TAIWANESE PLANT NEAR I-17 AND THE 303 TO PROMOTE THE PUSH FOR SEMI MANUFACTURING IN THE U.S. >>> ON CAPITOL HILL, DEMOCRATS UNANIMOUSLY ELECTED HAKEEM JEFFRIES AND SUCCEEDS NANCY PELOSI WHO IS STEPPING DOWN.

JEFFJEFF >> WE LOOK FORWARD TO FINDING TO PARTNER WITH THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AISLE AND WORK WITH THEM WHENEVER POSSIBLE AND WE WILL PUSH BACK AGAINST EXTREMISM WHENEVER NECESSARY.

HAKEEM JEFFRIES IS THE FIRST AFRICAN-AMERICAN TO SERVE AS HOUSE LEADER OF EITHER PARTY.

>>> ECONOMIC NEWS, THE U.S. LABOR MARKET IS TIGHT AND EASING A BIT AND THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TODAY REPORTED THE JOB OPENINGS FELL IN OCTOBER AND NOT BY MUCH, BUT IT WAS A DROP.

IT SHOWS STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND NONDURABLE GOOD'S MANUFACTURING HAD THE FEWEST OPENINGS LAST MONTH.

>>> LAST NIGHT, THE TEMPE CITY COUNCIL WITH THE $2.1 BILLION PROJECT TO THE BALLOT AND SLATED FOR MAY 16th.

THE COUNCIL APPROVED THE PLANS FOR THE NHL ARENA ALONG WITH TWO THOUSAND APARTMENTS AND THE ENTERTAINMENT DISTRICT ON TEMPE-OWNED LAT ON THE RIO SALADO PARKWAY AND PROPONENTS SEE THIS AS A LANDFILLED AND CRITICS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LOSS OF THE CITY'S BULK TO A LAND THAT MAY NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO COMPLETE THE PROJECT.

.

>> I THINK THIS MAKES SENSE.

YOU AND I HAVE TALKED BEFORE THAT DURING THE SUMMER AND FALL, ABOUT HALF OF THE AMOUNT OF INFLATION WAS DUE TO BROKEN SUPPLY CHAINS, NOT OVERSTIMULATED DEMAND AND AS SUPPLY CHAINS SEEM TO BE GETTING FIXED, GLOBALLY, THE RATE OF INFLATION WENT FROM 10 OR SO TO 7.7 LAST MONTH.

PROBABLY THE WORST PART OF INFLATION IS COMING DOWN PAW BECAUSE SUPPLY CHAINS ARE COMING DOWN.

>> Ted: THE ACTIONS BY THE FED, DID THEY HELP AS WELL EASE INFLATION?

>> IT'S LIKE HELPING WITH A SLEDGE HAMMER.

IT'S NOT GREAT TO HAVE THEM CRUSH DEMAND SO THAT SUPPLY CAN CATCH UP WITH DEMAND.

IT'S THE ONLY TOOL THEY HAVE AND THEY'RE VERY AWARE.

I SPOKE TO THE FED IN OCTOBER.

THEY'RE VERY AWARE THAT A HUGE PROBLEM WAS THE SUPPLY-BASED INFLATION.

SO I THINK IT'S A RELIEF TO THEM.

>> Ted: SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES, WE TALKED ABOUT THEM MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST MONTH AND WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW THAT WASN'T HAPPENING THEN?

>> IT'S LIKE THE POST WORLD WAR II PERIOD WHICH WE'VE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE.

YOU HAD COMPANIES IN WORLD WAR II MAKING TANKS AND AIRPLANES AND THEN TRYING TO SWITCH TO MAKE REGULAR CONSUMER PRODUCTS.

LIKE FORD MAKING BOMBERS AND CARS.

WE'RE IN THAT SAME PERIOD COMING OUT THE PANDEMIC AND IT'S HARD TO TURN THE FACET ON.

THE OTHER THING IS THAT ZERO COVID POLICIES IN CHINA AND THROUGHOUT ASIA HAVE BEEN DAMAGING TO SUPPLY CHAINS AND STILL ARE, TRUTHFULLY.

>> Ted: IF THEY'RE DAMAGING TO SUPPLY CHAINS, SOUNDS LIKE THEY'RE NOT CHANGING SOON.

IS IT DAMAGING TO CHINA?

>> PEOPLE ARE MOVING STUFF TO OTHER PLACES.

>> Ted: ARE THEY REALLY?

>> EVEN CHINESE MANUFACTURERS ARE THINKING, MAN, I CAN'T MAKE STUFF HERE IF WE HAVE ZERO COVID POLICIES.

SO CHINESE MANUFACTURERS MAKING STUFF FOR THE CHINESE MARKET ARE NERVOUS, AS WELL, BECAUSE YOU CAN'T HAVE AN UNRELIABLE -- THE REASON TO GO TO CHINA WAS LOW COST, BUT MORE THAN ANYTHING, RELIABILITY AND THEY ALWAYS MADE STUFF WHEN THEY SAID THEY WOULD AND NOW ALL OF A SUDDEN, IT'S ALL OVER THE PLACE.

AND YOU CAN'T HAVE THAT.

>> Ted: I SAW THE COMMODITY PRICES ARE FALLING AND SOME ARE SAYING THERE'S A CONNECTION THERE WITH CHINA, TRUE?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION COSTS COMING DOWN QUICKLY.

I DON'T KNOW IF YOU WERE REMEMBER, BUT WE WERE TALKING A YEAR AGO ABOUT THE PRICE OF A CONTAINER COMING INTO THE PORT OF L.A.

BEING 20,000 OR 25,000 AND NOW WE'RE BELOW 4,000.

SO WE'VE COME DOWN.

>> Ted: WHOA!

>> WE'RE SEEING REAL DEGRADATION IN THE USE OF FUEL GLOBALLY.

>> Ted: A DAMAGED CHINESE MARKET, STICKING WITH CHINA HERE, A DAMAGED MARKET AND ECONOMY OVER THERE, DOING THE WRONG THINGS AT ALL OF THE WRONG TIMES.

AT WHAT TIME DOES THAT HIT THE GLOBAL MARKET?

>> IMMEDIATELY, IT DOES.

WE'RE SO CONNECTED AND YOU CAN WISH WE WEREN'T, BUT WITH CAN'T REPLACE CHINA.

WE REALLY CAN'T.

WE CAN DO IT OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, IT'S BEEN 30 YEARS THAT WE'VE BEEN SENDING MANUFACTURING THERE.

AND ALSO THE BIG MARKETS ARE THERE.

YOU CAN'T JUST TURN IT OFF OVERNIGHT.

VIETNAM, TINY PLACE COMPARED TO CHINA.

>> Ted: BUT VIETNAM IS STILL THE TIGER OR THERE.

>> THEY ARE, AND THAT HAS A LOT TO DO WITH ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, ACTUALLY.

THERE'S A GUY, JEFF GOSS, WHO MORE THAN TEN YEARS AGO STARTED TRAINING ENGINEERS IN VIETNAM AND A JOINT PROJECT, AND IT'S REALLY ENABLED THEIR ELECTRONIC'S INDUSTRY OVER THERE.

>> Ted: BACK TO, YOU KNOW, SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE U.S., THINGS ARE STARTING TO EASE.

USED CAR PRICES ARE DOWN BIG TIME, 15% FROM THE PEAK AND AS YOU MENTIONED, THE FAUCET IS TURNED ON AND IS THERE A POINT WHEN THE FAUCET IS FLOODING THINGS?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

WE CALL IN THE BEER GAME EFFECT.

WE SEE IT RAMPING UP, RAMPING UP AND THEN, YOU'RE ALWAYS RAMPING UP BEYOND WHERE YOU SHOULD BE COMING BACK DOWN.

SO ABSOLUTELY.

>> Ted: SO WATCH FOR THAT?

>> IT DEPENDS ON THE TYPE OF PRODUCT, BUT BECAUSE WE'RE DAMAGING DEMAND THROUGH INTEREST RATE HIKES AND THE FED, YOU HAVE TO FIGURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT SUMMER, WE'LL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THAT.

>> Ted: WHAT ABOUT HOUSING PRICES AND THE FED?

HOUSING PRICES ARE PLUMMETING IN MANY RESPECTS AND AREAS AND WILL THAT CONTINUE?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, HOUSING PRICES REALLY WANT TO GO UP.

THEY ALWAYS DO AND IT'S USUALLY AN ARTIFICIAL THING WHEN THEY COME DOWN AND THEY DO COME DOWN AS WE HAD A BAD RECESSION TEN, 12 YEARS AGO AND WE'RE SEEING A DECREASE IN PRICES NOW.

ABSOLUTELY.

BUT THEY ALWAYS WANT TO GO UP.

>> Ted: I SAW A FORECAST THAT SAID NEXT YEAR HOUSING PRICES COULD BE DOWN AS MUCH AS 20% AND DOES THAT MAKE SENSE TO YOU?

>> WELL, I THINK IN SOME MARKETS, BUT NOT EVERYWHERE, YEAH.

>> Ted: BETWEEN SUPPLY CHAIN, WHAT'S HAPPENING IN CHINA, THE FAUCET BEING TURNED ON, INFLATION COMING DOWN, STAYING DOWN FOR AWHILE?

>> WELL, I MEAN, IF WE WENT BACK TWO YEARS AND SAID, HEY, WE'RE AT 7.7% INFLATION, WE'D BE HORIFIED.

SO THE RATE IS COMING DOWN, BUT PRICES ARE STILL GOING UP.

AND I THINK THEY'RE LIKELY TO FOR, YOU KNOW, CLOSE TO THE 2024 ELECTION.

>> Ted: REALLY?

EVEN WITH CONTINUED SUPPLIES?

MAYBE >> MAYBE IN 2024 WE'LL SEE IT OVER WITH.

IT'S NOT COMING DOWN THAT FAST.

>> Ted: DALE ROJERS, SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

>> Ted: UP NEXT, THE IMPORTANCE OF SHOPPING LOCAL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON.

>> LOCAL FIRST ARIZONA IS AN ORGANIZATION THAT PROMOTES ARIZONA BUSINESSES AND STRESSES THE IMPORTANCE OF SHOPPING LOCAL.

KIMBER LANDING IS THE FOUNDER AND JOINS US TO TALK ABOUT SHOPPING LOCAL IS SO IMPORTANT FOR THE COMMUNITY.

ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU AND THANKS FOR JOINING US AGAIN.

FOR THOSE WHO AREN'T FAMILIAR, AND THEY SHOULD BE, LOCAL FIRST ARIZONA, GIVE ME A BETTER DEFINITION OF WHAT YOU DO.

>> WE'RE A STATE-WIDE ORGANIZATION TO STRENGTHEN ARIZONA'S ECONOMY.

SO WE DO THAT THROUGH INVESTING AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND SMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT.

WE HAVE A NETWORK OF LOCAL BUSINESSES ACROSS THE STATE, BUT REALLY, YOU KNOW, IT'S VERY TINY RIGHT NOW AND WE'RE FACING MASSIVE MERGES.

OUR STRATEGY IS TO BUILD A DIVERSE ECONOMY BY SUPPORTING ALL TYPES OF SMALL, LOCALLY-OWNED BUSINESSES.

>> Ted: DEFINE LOCAL BUSINESSES AND IS IT BASED HERE?

HOW DOES THAT WORK?

>> WE DEFINE IT'S IT FAMILY-OWNED AND OPERATED AND PRIVATELY OWNED AND NOT PUBLICALLY TRADED.

THE FAMILY NEEDED TO LIVE IN ARIZONA NINE MONTHS OUT OF THE YEAR.

WE ARE PUSHING BACK ON THIS NOTION THAT BIG HAS TO MEAN THAT YOU GO INTO THE STOCK MARKET.

THERE ARE BIG COMPANIES LIKE SAM ADAM'S BEER OR DOCK FOODS, A NINE BILLION DOLLARS COMPANY FAMILY OWNED AND OPERATED.

I THINK THE CHALLENGE IS THAT WHEN YOU BECOME A CORPORATE STRUCTURE, YOU GO INTO THE STOCK MARKET AND YOUR OWNERSHIP THEN IS VEILED AND LESS ACCOUNTABLE TO THE COMMUNITIES THEY SERVE THAN WHEN YOU HAVE A FAMILY THAT OWNS THAT COMPANY.

>> Ted: ARE YOU SEEING MORE OF THE FAMILY-OWNED COMPANIES AND BUSINESSES IN ARIZONA?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THERE WERE TONS OF NEW BUSINESSES THAT LAUNCHED DURING COVID, IRONICALLY AND A LOT OF CHANGE-OVER OUT THERE.

BUT THERE'S PLENTY OF NEW AND A LOT OF ENTHUSIASM RIGHT NOW FOR SUPPORTING LOCALLY-OWNED BYES.

IT TURNS OUT THAT CERTAIN LIE THAT RETIRING BOOMERS LOVE THAT EXPERIENCE.

INDEPENDENT BEER COMPANIES ARE BOOMING RIGHT NOW AND IT'S BECAUSE PEOPLE WANT TO BE THE FIRST TO KNOW.

THEY WANT THAT UNIQUE EXPERIENCE.

>> Ted: THE EMPHASIS ON SHOPPING LOCAL AND WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS BEFORE, THE IMPACT ON LOCAL ECONOMIES.

IT'S THERE.

YOU CAN FEEL IT, CAN'T YOU?

>> OH, GOODNESS, YEAH.

THREE TO FOUR TIMES MORE MONEY STAYS IN THE LOW ECONOMY AND RECIRCULATES.

LOCALLY OWNED BUSINESS WILL HAVE A LOCAL GRAPHIC DESIGNER, PAYROLL SERVICE PROVIDER, ACCOUNTANT AND THOSE JOBS ARE OUTSOURCED TO A HEADQUARTERS WHEN YOU'RE SPENDING YOUR MONEY WITH A CHAIN.

SO, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE JOBS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEOPLE IN ARIZONA WHEN YOU CHOOSE TO SPEND YOUR MONEY WITH A LOCAL COMMUNITY.

>> Ted: WHICH HELPS BUILD COMMUNITY.

>> IT HELPS BUILD COMMUNITY, ACCOUNTABILITY AND CREATES THAT UNIQUE CHARACTER AND FLAVOR THAT MAKES YOU KNOW YOU'RE PROUD OF YOUR HOMETOWN.

>> Ted: YOU MENTIONED COVID.

TALK ABOUT THE CHALLENGE.

OBVIOUSLY DEALING WITH COVID, WHEN IT HAPPENED FOR LOCAL BUSINESSES.

THERE'S A CHALLENGE COMING OUT OF THAT BECAUSE ALL OF A SUDDEN, YOUR BOOMERANGED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.

>> LAYERS AND LAYERS.

THROUGHOUT COVID, REDISTRICTED 52 MILLION IN RELIEF AID AND SOME OF THAT WENT THROUGH HIRING INCENTIVES, RAISES IN BONUSES AND SOME WENT TO PAYING MORTGAGES AND RENT.

A WIDE VARIETY OF GRANTS THAT WE WERE ABLE TO DISTRIBUTE FOR LARGE AND SMALL COMMUNITIES.

THERE WAS A SMALL COMMUNITY THAT SAID CAN YOU HELP US GET IT OUT.

WE DISTRIBUTED 52 MILLION IN TOTAL AND DIRECT TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO OVER THREE THOUSAND SMALL AND MID-SIZED COMPANIES WHO NEEDED TO EVALUATE WHAT WOULD WORK FOR THEM GOING FORWARD AND WHAT PART OF THEIR BUSINESS MOTTO WOULD NOT WORK.

WE HAD TO GO CREATIVE DEBT RESTRUCTURING, JUST A WIDE VARIETY OF SERVICES THAT WE OFFERED TO KEEP THOSE BUSINESSES AFLOAT.

>> Ted: THAT'S A LOT MORE THAN I REMEMBER LOCAL FIRST ARIZONA DOING WHEN I FIRST INTERVIEWED YOU A LONG TIME AGO WHEN YOU STARTED THIS.

IS THIS ORGANIC WHERE YOU'RE FINDING OUT A LOT OF BUSINESSES NEED X, Y AND Z?

>> WE'RE VERY ENTREPRENEURIAL ORGANIZATION.

WE ARE RESPONDING TO THE NEEDS IN THE MOMENT AND WE'RE A MUCH LARGER ORGANIZATION AND WE HAVE FOUR OFFICES AROUND THE STATE AND WE HAVE FOUR INCUBATORS KITCHENS THAT ARE RUNNING AND INCUBATING FOOD ENTREPRENEURS AND NEARLY 50 STAFF.

WE'RE A DIFFERENT ORGANIZATION AND WE'RE REALLY PROVIDING A WIDE VARIETY OF SERVICES.

>> Ted: TALK ABOUT THE HOLIDAYS AND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS TO SHOP LOCAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

>> SO IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE RETAIL SECTOR RIGHT?

WE REPRESENT MANUFACTURING, HOMEMADE GOODS, A WIDE VARIETY OF SECTORS, BUT RETAILERS, IT'S IMPORTANT.

WE LAUNCHED A NEW WEBSITE FOCUSED ON ONE-STOP EASE SHOPPING FOR PEOPLE LOOKING TO GO SHOPPING, FIRSTSHOPPING.COM AND THEY'RE ALL READY TO SHIP RIGHT AWAY AND IT BRINGS TOGETHER HUNDREDS OF LOCAL BUSINESSES AND ONE WEBSITE.

>> Ted: GIFT GUIDES, REGISTRIES, VENDORS AND THESE SORTS OF THINGS, THAT'S ALL ON THE WEBSITE.

>> ALL ON THE WEBSITE, THAT'S RIGHT.

>> Ted: SHOPPING ON LINE AS CHANGED THE NAME OF RETAIL BUSINESS IN SO MANY WAYS AND HOW ARE LOCAL BUSINESSES HANDLING THAT?

>> I THINK IT'S A MIXED BAG, RIGHT?

WE ARE STATE-WIDE AND PART OF THE REASON WE LAUNCHED THIS SHOPLOCALAZ WEBSITE IS SO RETAILERS COULD MAKE THEIR PRODUCTS AVAILABLE STATE-WIDE BECAUSE MOST OF THEM, EVEN IF THEY HAVE A LOCAL WEBSITE, THEY'RE NOT COMPETITIVE FROM AN SCO PERSPECTIVE AND THEY'RE STRUGGLING TO GET FOUND AND OUR WEBSITE IS HOPING TO BOOST SMALL BUSINESSES TO FIND THEM.

IF YOU WANT A PIECE OF COPPER ART FROM GLOBE ARIZONA, WE'VE GOT YOU COVERED.

>> Ted: ALMOST LIKE THE AS A ETSY.

>> EXACTLY.

>> Ted: THE FUTURE FOR SMALL BUSINESS IN ARIZONA, OPTIMISTIC?

>> INCREDIBLY OPTIMISTIC AND THE WORK THAT WE DO AROUND THE STATE HELPING SMALL TOWN, THEY WANT TO SEE THEIR SMALL BUSINESSES THRIVE.

THERE'S BEEN A REAL SHIFT IN UNDERSTANDING HOW IMPORTANT OUR SMALL BUSINESSES ARE.

>> Ted: THAT WEBSITE?

>> SHOPARIZONASMALLTHRIFT.COM.

>> Ted: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AND YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

NEXT ON ARIZONA PBS, MEET GILBERT FIRE AND RESCUE'S ARSON DOG AND ONE OF THE DEPARTMENT'S RESCUE DOGS OF SUSPICIOUS FIRES.

- Another powerful edition of Arizona Horizon.

That has been a part of the news and public affairs programming in the Grand Canyon state >> ANOTHER POWERFUL EDITION OF ARIZONA HORIZON, A PART OF THE GRAND CANYON STATE FOR AS LONG AS I CAN REMEMBER.

WHEN I CAME TO ARIZONA IN 1988 WITHIN1988WAS WATCHING MICHAEL GRANT AND NOW IT'S TED SIMONS AND TED HAS BEEN ASKING THE KINDS OF QUESTIONS WE WISH WE ALL COULD ASK AND GETTING THE ANSWERS WE ALL WISH WE COULD GET.

IT'S POWERFUL NEWS AND PUBLIC NEWS AND COVERING IMPORTANT ISSUES LIKE AT THE ARIZONA LEGISLATURE.

NOBODY DOES THAT BETTER AND HERE WE ARE GOING INTO ELECTION SEASON AGAIN AND ARIZONA HORIZON AND ARIZONA PBS, FLAT OUT OF THE BEST ELECTION COVERAGE YOU CAN GET.

IT'S RIGHT HERE.

SO GIVES US A CALL.

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